1999_Roser_DETC Risk Effect Minimization_Preprint

1999_Roser_DETC Risk Effect Minimization_Preprint

This paper addresses robust product development practices by evaluating the flexibility of the development process and the resulting product and process designs. A flexible design has the ability to change performance while requiring only minor time and costs to change the design parameters. A design change might be necessary if the actual design performance is not matched by the predicted design performance. The described methodology utilizes response surfaces for multiple performance attributes to assess the utility across the design space. This utility is optimized with respect to the robustness against noise and prediction inaccuracies. Based on this design, non-dominant pareto optimal sets of all feasible design changes are then developed to asses potential performance gains against the time and cost needed to incur the change assuming correct performance predictions. While robust design practices seek to reduce the risk of design change, the proposed method rather accepts the risk of design change and minimizes the potential negative effects.